MD 2021 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO AND NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO
Mesoscale Discussion 2021
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0302 PM CDT Fri Aug 29 2025
Areas affected...portions of southeastern Colorado and northeast New
Mexico
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 292002Z - 292130Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent
SUMMARY...Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to
continue developing this afternoon over the higher-terrains and
adjacent plains. Eventually a few stronger clusters or supercells
may evolve with a risk for damaging gusts and some hail. A WW is
possible but uncertain.
DISCUSSION...Weak upslope flow and strong diurnal heating of a moist
air mass is support scattered thunderstorm development over portions
of the central Rockies this afternoon. Weak ascent from a glancing
shortwave trough and continued upslope should allow for additional
development over the next several hours. While low and mid-level
lapse rates aren't particularly steep, heating and upper 50s to mid
60s F dewpoints are supporting moderate MLCAPE (1500-2000 J/kg) over
the southern high Plains.
As convection intensifies this afternoon a 35-45 kt of bulk-shear
are in place to support storm organization. A few organized clusters
or supercell structures could evolve with an initial risk of
damaging gusts and some hail. CAM guidance has trended more
aggressive this afternoon, showing further storm development/upscale
growth into this evening, which could support one or more linear
clusters with a locally greater damaging wind threat.
While confidence in the convective evolution is low owing to
somewhat nebulous forcing for ascent, storm coverage is expected to
increase over the coming hours. A broadly favorable severe
environment with continued destabilization also suggests the severe
threat is likely increasing. Portions of southeastern CO, southwest
KS and northeast NM will be upgraded to a level 2/5 Slight Risk at
20z. A WW is also being considered.
..Lyons/Mosier.. 08/29/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...GLD...AMA...PUB...BOU...ABQ...
LAT...LON 37380536 38750434 39050297 38270218 37070234 35300310
34350379 34250434 34540511 36330555 37380536
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
