MD 2041 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN TEXAS INTO SOUTHWESTERN ARKANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 2041
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1020 PM CDT Fri Sep 05 2025
Areas affected...portions of northern Texas into southwestern
Arkansas
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 060320Z - 060515Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...A few severe gusts may still occur with the stronger
storms over the next few hours.
DISCUSSION...An MCS continues to propagate eastward along the TX/OK
border, and will soon enter AR. This MCS has an earlier history of
producing severe gusts, though none have been reported over the last
couple of hours. However, recently intensified convection north of
the Metroplex has produced measured severe gusts. These storms are
tracking into an environment characterized by up to 3000 J/kg MLCAPE
and 30+ kts of effective bulk shear, whose vectors are oriented
roughly normal to the ongoing linear convection. The expectation is
for organized storms, including bowing segments, to continue
propagating to the east amid this CAPE/shear parameter space.
However, nocturnal cooling, and the impacts of overturning
convection, are contributing to low-level stability, so the
persistence of effective downward momentum transport for damaging or
severe gusts is in question. Nonetheless, at least a few more strong
to possibly severe gusts are plausible over the next few hours.
..Squitieri/Mosier.. 09/06/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...
LAT...LON 32669656 32719711 32879733 33119742 33409737 33509734
34329531 34629311 34339190 33819166 33339194 33019275
32879374 32739511 32659602 32669656
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
