SPC MD 2069

SPC MD 2069


Mesoscale Discussion 2069
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1020 PM CDT Wed Aug 30 2023

Areas affected…western ND

Concerning…Severe potential…Watch unlikely

Valid 310320Z – 310515Z

Probability of Watch Issuance…5 percent

SUMMARY…Strong to severe gusts (peak gusts 50-65 mph) will be
possible for the next few hours across western ND as a thunderstorm
band moves east.

DISCUSSION…Radar mosaic shows an intensifying band of
thunderstorms near the northeast MT/northwest ND border region and
another linear cluster in southwest ND immediately ahead of a potent
mid-level shortwave low/trough. There has been a history of
ASOS-measured strong to severe gusts in eastern MT in association
with this convection during the past couple of hours. The recent
development/intensification of thunderstorms has coincided with a
long-lived thunderstorm cluster and its associated outflow reaching
a more moist airmass located over western ND (lower 60s deg F
surface dewpoints compared to 40s to lower 50s over eastern MT).
Steep 700-500 mb lapse rates evident on the 00z Glasgow, MT and
Bismarck, ND raobs (7 to 8 deg C/km) and strong large-scale forcing
for ascent will continue to promote strong to severe thunderstorm
activity. The confined spatial and temporal extent of the expected
threat will preclude the need for a small severe thunderstorm watch.

..Smith/Grams.. 08/31/2023

…Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product…


LAT…LON 48300389 48820398 49050265 48470182 47150142 46540204
46450317 48300389

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