MD 2100 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 614… FOR MISSOURI
Mesoscale Discussion 2100
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0843 PM CDT Thu Sep 18 2025
Areas affected...Missouri
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 614...
Valid 190143Z - 190315Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 614
continues.
SUMMARY...Severe threat is decreasing across Missouri this evening.
Even so, a few gusts remain possible for the next 1-2 hours.
DISCUSSION...Robust frontal convection that spread across western
into central MO has shown significant weakening over the last hour.
This activity has overturned the primary corridor of instability and
only a narrow zone of roughly 500 J/kg MLCAPE exists along the
eastern fringes of ww614. 00z sounding from SGF exhibits a very
stable rain-cooled profile, and moisture/instability is considerably
less near the MO/IL border. For these reasons current weakening
trends are expected to continue and a new watch will not be issued.
..Darrow.. 09/19/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX...
LAT...LON 36809233 38419223 39599269 39839196 38829132 36819154
36809233
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
