MD 2102 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR CENTRAL AND WESTERN WISCONSIN
Mesoscale Discussion 2102
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0446 PM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025
Areas affected...Central and Western Wisconsin
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 192146Z - 192345Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...A cluster of thunderstorms north of a surface warm front
will continue to show intermittent strong to severe intensity. These
storms ware capable primarily of winds near 60 MPH and hail
generally less than 1.25 inches.
DISCUSSION...The cluster of thunderstorms over central Wisconsin and
into the Driftless region will continue to be capable of strong to
severe intensity as they move parallel-to and north-of a surface
warm frontal boundary extending from central Minnesota into the
Chicago area. The environment is characterized by modest buoyancy 0f
1000 J/kg MLCAPE, but with shear generally around the 20-25 kt
range. Given the boundary-parallel storm motion and general lack of
upper-level support, only transient periods of intensification and
decay are expected. These storms could be capable of 60 MPH winds
and up to 1.25 inch hail, with some reports of 0.75 inch hail
already recorded.
Some additional intensification and organization could occur through
the early evening, primarily along and north of the warm front, due
to some locally enhanced low-level storm relative helicity. This
could result in brief periods of organization or even rotation, but
the overall storm mode favoring thunderstorm clusters will result in
unfavorable storm interactions that prevent prolonged
intensification. No weather watch is expected at this time.
..Halbert/Bunting.. 09/19/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...GRB...MKX...ARX...MPX...
LAT...LON 43689070 44229169 44889192 45249192 45389144 45099065
44668983 44378926 44198905 43928910 43628919 43468946
43408994 43429007 43689070
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
