MD 2119 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
Mesoscale Discussion 2119 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0718 PM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025 Areas affected...Central High Plains Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 230018Z - 230215Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...Convection is expected to increase across western Kansas into the Oklahoma Panhandle later this evening. Hail and wind are possible with this activity and a watch is being considered, though timing is uncertain. DISCUSSION...Midlevel heights are being suppressed across the southern Rockies this evening with an apparent vort over northern NM, ejecting east-northeast toward the High Plains. Latest radar imagery supports this with a substantial amount of weak convection arcing from northeast NM to northern Otero County NM. A secondary short wave is digging southeast across eastern UT, and this feature will advance into western CO late this evening. Net result will be a responsive LLJ that should increase across the eastern TX Panhandle into southwestern KS. Southeasterly boundary-layer flow is currently noted across the eastern TX Panhandle into eastern CO. This is contributing to a corridor of higher instability extending across the High Plains. 00z soundings from DDC and AMA exhibit very steep midlevel lapse rates, and large-scale ascent/moistening at midlevels is contributing to the aforementioned arcing band of convection. Latest thinking is sustained low-level warm advection will eventually aid robust thunderstorm development across western KS. This activity should propagate southeast, encouraged by the increasing LLJ. Hail and wind are the primary concerns and a watch is being considered. ..Darrow/Kerr.. 09/23/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...GLD...AMA... LAT...LON 36520127 38670200 38889985 37199883 36289976 36520127 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
