MD 2160 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SOUTH-CENTRAL INTO NORTHEAST KS…NORTHWEST INTO NORTH-CENTRAL MO
Mesoscale Discussion 2160
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0642 PM CDT Thu Oct 24 2024
Areas affected…south-central into northeast KS…northwest into
north-central MO
Concerning…Severe potential…Watch unlikely
Valid 242342Z – 250145Z
Probability of Watch Issuance…20 percent
SUMMARY…Strong to locally severe storms will be possible this
evening, with a threat of isolated hail and strong to severe wind
gusts.
DISCUSSION…Storm coverage is increasing early this evening from
central KS into northwest MO. Storms to the north/northeast of
Kansas City have developed just to northeast of a warm front and are
likely somewhat elevated. Persistent low-level warm/moist advection
will help to sustain these storms as they approach north-central MO.
Moderate elevated buoyancy (with MUCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg) and
sufficient deep-layer shear could support marginal supercell
structures with a threat for isolated large hail. Also, despite this
convection being somewhat elevated, a dry near-surface layer beneath
the elevated moist plume could support some stronger wind gusts this
evening as storms spread northeastward.
Farther west, scattered storm development is ongoing from
south-central into northeast KS, as a southeastward-moving cold
front begins to intercept a pre-frontal surface trough and
relatively greater instability. While low-level moisture remains
rather limited, strong diurnal heating has resulted in MLCAPE
increasing into the 500-1000 J/kg range, along with weakening
MLCINH. Increasing deep-layer flow/shear associated with an
approaching midlevel shortwave trough will support some organized
convection through the evening.
Rather strong low-level flow (30-40 kt in the 1-3 km layer per
regional VWPs) and steep low-level lapse rates will support
potential for strong to locally severe gusts within this regime,
especially if any organized clustering occurs. Isolated hail will
also be possible, especially into east-central/northeast KS and
northwest MO, where somewhat more favorable moisture and buoyancy
will be in place.
..Dean/Hart.. 10/24/2024
…Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product…
ATTN…WFO…EAX…OAX…TOP…ICT…
LAT…LON 37829798 38729706 39009674 39919589 40459437 40469379
40479286 40379259 39899309 39569346 39029418 38269515
37799564 37359641 37279699 37289743 37369820 37829798
