MD 2161 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR CENTRAL PA INTO PARTS OF THE MID ATLANTIC
Mesoscale Discussion 2161
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0659 PM CDT Sun Oct 19 2025
Areas affected...Central PA into parts of the Mid Atlantic
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 192359Z - 200230Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent
SUMMARY...Isolated strong/damaging gusts are possible this evening.
DISCUSSION...Multiple low-topped rain bands are ongoing this evening
from central PA into parts of the Mid Atlantic, along and just ahead
of an eastward-moving cold front. Buoyancy is very weak to
negligible (with SBCAPE of around 100-200 J/kg or less) and no
lightning is being produced with these bands, but strong ascent
related to a vigorous mid/upper-level trough approaching the region
will sustain this activity through the evening, with some
consolidation possible along the cold front. Peak wind gusts have
generally been in the 40-50 mph range, but with flow increasing into
the 35-50 kt range within the 1-3 km AGL layer (as sampled by
regional VWPs), isolated damaging gusts will be possible within the
weakly convective rain bands as they approach the Mid Atlantic
region.
..Dean/Guyer.. 10/19/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...CTP...LWX...RAH...RNK...
LAT...LON 37757677 36977738 36587799 36307902 36338003 36887951
38027840 39997754 41137796 41297719 41037644 40437630
39887631 39017644 37757677
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
