MD 2172 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF THE TEXAS EDWARDS PLATEAU AND ADJACENT RIO GRANDE VALLEY INTO SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 2172
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0621 PM CDT Fri Oct 24 2025
Areas affected...parts of the Texas Edwards Plateau and adjacent Rio
Grande Valley into south central Texas
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 242321Z - 250115Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent
SUMMARY...One or two developing supercells may pose a risk for
severe hail and wind while spreading across and east of the Rio
Grande River early this evening, followed by more widespread, but
generally weaker, thunderstorm activity later this evening. It is
not certain that a severe weather watch will be needed, but trends
are being monitored for this possibility.
DISCUSSION...Vigorous thunderstorm development appears to be
initiating across the higher terrain of northern Coahuila, to the
west-northwest of Del Rio. This is occurring just ahead of the
slowly southeastward advancing conglomerate outflow boundary, which
is forecast to progress southeast of the Edwards Plateau through mid
to late evening.
In the presence of a moist boundary-layer characterized by
mixed-layer CAPE on the order of 1500 J/kg, and strong deep-layer
shear, further intensification appears probable while propagating
across the Rio Grande River into areas near/north of the Del Rio
vicinity during the next couple of hours, aided by 30+ kt
west-southwesterly deep-layer mean flow. This may include potential
for large hail and locally damaging wind gusts for at least a period
this evening, but due to increasing inhibition associated with the
loss of daytime heating, it remains unclear how long this will be
maintained, even as boundary-layer moisture slowly increases to the
east of the Kerrville, Hondo, and Cotulla vicinities.
Although more widespread thunderstorm development may overspread the
region in the wake of this initial activity, it appears that this
will mostly remain above/to the cool side of the southeastward
advancing convective outflow, where potential for damaging wind
gusts should be limited, though some risk for severe hail may
linger.
..Kerr/Hart.. 10/24/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...MAF...
LAT...LON 30010213 30270142 30370092 30459967 29909930 29199979
28980224 30010213
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
