MD 2179 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH-CENTRAL TX
Mesoscale Discussion 2179
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0253 PM CDT Sat Oct 25 2025
Areas affected...portions of north-central TX
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 251953Z - 252130Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...Isolated strong storms may produce marginally severe hail
and gusty winds this afternoon.
DISCUSSION...Isolated strong storms have developed this afternoon
near a cold front draped across central into north Texas. This
activity is developing beneath the colder core of the midlevel
trough and on the fringes of the stronger midlevel jet. MLCAPE
ranges from around 500-1500 J/kg where storms have developed, but
the downstream airmass remains capped. Weaker instability is also
downstream, where overnight/early morning convection resulted in
overturning. Airmass recovery has been slow, limited by early cloud
cover and veered low-level winds.
While this may limit overall severe potential, cool temperatures
aloft and greater than 40 kt effective shear magnitudes could
support transient strong updrafts with a potential for marginal hail
and gusty winds with the strongest cells this afternoon.
..Leitman/Gleason.. 10/25/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT...
LAT...LON 31119949 31519930 32269830 32439761 32569682 32569648
32429621 32029597 31369615 30879679 30669764 30589833
30779919 30899929 31119949
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
