MD 2195 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF FAR SOUTHERN TEXAS INCLUDING THE MIDDLE AND LOWER COASTAL COUNTIES
Mesoscale Discussion 2195
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0523 PM CDT Sat Nov 01 2025
Areas affected...parts of far southern Texas including the middle
and lower coastal counties
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 012223Z - 020130Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent
SUMMARY...Scattered storms, some severe, may develop over the next
several hours and affect much of the middle to lower Texas Coast. A
few storms may produce large and damaging hail.
DISCUSSION...Surface analysis shows an inverted trough from the
lower Rio Grande Valley into central TX, with significantly cooler
surface temperatures over central TX compared to far southern areas.
However, moist easterly low-level winds combined with cooling aloft
with the upper trough have supported elevated thunderstorms this
afternoon with minimal severe potential thus far.
Farther south, conditions appear to be much more favorable for large
hail, with full heating and a deepening moist boundary layer. The
primary uncertainty is storm coverage over land.
The 18Z CRP sounding showed a capping inversion near 800 mb. In
addition to gradual boundary layer moistening since then, 700 mb
temperatures have likely cooled as the upper trough digs
southeastward. Convection is already starting to increase across the
middle TX Coast, and this trend should continue. Cells may become
severe before moving offshore, with large hail the primary threat.
Deep-layer shear appears quite favorable with 50-60 kt effective
values.
At least isolated severe may occur later tonight toward the lower
Rio Grande, as midlevel temperatures continue to cool.
..Jewell/Mosier.. 11/01/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...HGX...CRP...EWX...BRO...
LAT...LON 25999786 27509860 28139872 29009794 29319646 29139538
29009522 28269648 27829704 27119734 26589721 25949711
25789744 25999786
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
