MD 2196 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 702… FOR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO NORTHEAST TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 2196
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0452 PM CST Sun Nov 03 2024
Areas affected...southeast Oklahoma into northeast Texas
Concerning...Tornado Watch 702...
Valid 032252Z - 040115Z
The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 702 continues.
SUMMARY...The threat of damaging gusts and a couple tornadoes
persists across the watch area, with perhaps a greater risk across
the Red River Valley.
DISCUSSION...A large mass of rain and thunderstorms currently
extends form south-central OK into northern TX, oriented southwest
to northeast and primarily north of the outflow boundary/stationary
front. While favorable shear exists north of the boundary, cooler
temperatures are mitigating the overall threat at this time.
Farther south into TX, a very moist air mass is in place with PWAT
ranging from 1.50 to 2.00" into northeast TX. Given continued
southerly low-level flow, this warm advection regime will persist
across the stationary front, which eventually may return north later
this evening.
At this time, storms have shown a disorganized structure in terms of
severe threat. However, the most favorable zone in a relative sense
is across the Red River Valley and surrounding counties, as the
ongoing activity translates east. Storm cores along the theta-e
gradient may pose a risk of damaging winds with the bowing
structures. Additional single-cells cannot be ruled out forming
ahead of the main band of storms, as the air mass is uncapped. A
brief tornado threat could occur with any activity interacting with
the boundary. If the front begins moving north, then storms may
acquire rotation along it over a longer period of time.
..Jewell.. 11/03/2024
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...
LAT...LON 33409790 34499659 34829601 34869544 34679482 34429460
33729451 33419479 33399579 33239692 32969763 32989806
33409790
