
MD 2205 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH LIKELY FOR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA…SOUTHEAST KANSAS…SOUTHWEST MISSOURI AND FAR NORTHERN ARKANSAS.
Mesoscale Discussion 2205 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0114 PM CST Mon Nov 04 2024 Areas affected...northeast Oklahoma...southeast Kansas...Southwest Missouri and far northern Arkansas. Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 041914Z - 042045Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...The severe weather threat is increasing rapidly across southeast Kansas, southwest Missouri, and far northwest Arkansas. DISCUSSION...Surface analysis shows a warm front advancing northeast across eastern Oklahoma to near the Oklahoma/Kansas border and far southern Missouri. A line embedded supercell with a confirmed tornado is moving through northeast Oklahoma and should persist northeast through the afternoon/evening. The area where the line of storms interacts with the warm front will likely continue to be a favorable location for tornado development. In addition, any mature supercells which develop ahead of the line could also pose a tornado threat given the favorable low-level shear profile which is expected to improve through the evening. ..Bentley/Hart.. 11/04/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...EAX...TSA...ICT... LAT...LON 36989600 37689533 38109487 38159334 37539289 36609296 35999325 35839435 35829471 36989600