
MD 2209 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 704… FOR NORTHEAST TEXAS…FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA…SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 2209 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0505 PM CST Mon Nov 04 2024 Areas affected...northeast Texas...far southeast Oklahoma...southwest Arkansas Concerning...Tornado Watch 704... Valid 042305Z - 050000Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 704 continues. SUMMARY...A tornado threat is likely to persist over northeast Texas, far southeast Oklahoma, and southwest Arkansas this evening. DISCUSSION...Convection within a confluence line beneath the 50 kt low-level jet has gradually strengthened, with supercells now evident. This zone remains in a favorable shear and instability space, with 0-1 SRH over 250 m2/s2 and high surface theta-e values ahead of the cold front. Surface observations also indicate winds gusting over 25 kt, indicative of the coupled boundary layer and expected full incorporation of available low-level shear. As such, a new watch will be needed for parts of the region, with threat persisting until the cold front pushes through. ..Jewell.. 11/04/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD... LAT...LON 32269621 32539610 34389521 34509500 34489397 34239360 33569379 32959397 32029476 32009564 32269621