MD 2214 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
Mesoscale Discussion 2214
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0105 PM CST Wed Nov 06 2024
Areas affected...the Florida Keys
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 061905Z - 062100Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...A brief waterspout/onshore tornado will be possible this
afternoon within showery convection on the outer/northern periphery
of Hurricane Rafael. Watch issuance will likely remain unnecessary.
DISCUSSION...Recent radar reflectivity loop from KBYX (Key West
WSR-88D) continues to depict a very loosely organized band of
convection/showers moving west-northwestward on the northern fringe
of Rafael, whose center remains just south of western Cuba at this
time. A few of the showers have exhibited weak/rather transient
low-level rotation over the past several hours. With low-level flow
quasi-unidirectional/westerly, but increasing in magnitude with
height, low-level shear is sufficient to support continued/weak
rotation within stronger convective elements. Overall however,
given the weak/brief nature of the circulations that should remain
the case this afternoon, and thus no more than a weak/brief spout or
tornado expected, a tornado watch is not anticipated.
..Goss/Hart.. 11/06/2024
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...KEY...
LAT...LON 24758288 24678188 24858116 24788096 24598100 24458177
24498288 24638300 24758288
