MD 2217 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PART OF THE TEXAS EDWARDS PLATEAU VICINITY
Mesoscale Discussion 2217
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0504 PM CST Thu Nov 07 2024
Areas affected...part of the Texas Edwards Plateau vicinity
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 072304Z - 080100Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent
SUMMARY...Thunderstorm activity is slowly increasing with further
upscale growth possible into mid to late evening, accompanied by a
risk for severe hail initially, then perhaps a few strong surface
gusts later this evening. The risk for tornadoes appears low, but
perhaps not out of the question.
DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm activity is in the process of initiating
near/southwest through northwest of San Angelo. This appears
focused along a diffuse dryline structure, near its intersection
with a baroclinic zone within broad weak surface troughing.
Although mid-level lapse rates do not appear particularly steep, a
fairly deep moist boundary may be contributing to CAPE up to 1500
J/kg, beneath strong, broadly difluent southwesterly mid/upper flow.
Despite generally weak to modest low-level forcing for ascent,
continuing moist unstable inflow in the presence of weakened
mid-level inhibition may be sufficient to support a gradual further
increase in convective development and upscale growth. Given the
environment, this may be accompanied by a risk for severe hail in
stronger storms initially, then perhaps some increase in potential
for strong surface gusts later this evening as activity slowly
shifts northeastward/eastward.
..Kerr/Gleason.. 11/07/2024
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...SJT...MAF...
LAT...LON 31360098 32070070 32549982 31650004 31100038 30890090
31070105 31360098
