MD 2234 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR EAST TX…WESTERN LA…AND FAR SOUTHWEST AR
Mesoscale Discussion 2234
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1241 PM CST Mon Nov 18 2024
Areas affected...east TX...western LA...and far southwest AR
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 181841Z - 182045Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent
SUMMARY...Increasing potential for a couple tornadic supercells
should occur by late afternoon as warm-sector storms intensify ahead
of a outflow-reinforced cold front. A tornado watch may be needed.
DISCUSSION...As surface temperatures have warmed into the mid 80s as
far northeast as the greater Houston Metro Area, warm-sector showers
have deepened downstream within the warm conveyor across southeast
TX. A 17Z sounding from Texas A&M at CLL well sampled the
pre-frontal environment ahead of the outflow-reinforced cold front
that has been marching east across east TX. While tropospheric lapse
rates are weak, enhanced low-level shear persists where surface
winds remain slightly backed ahead of the front (as shown in the 18Z
LCH/SHV soundings). Surface winds/low-level flow have slowly veered
farther southwest (where temperatures are warmer) per HGX VWP data,
suggesting that initial storms might struggle to produce low-level
mesocyclones until convection spreads farther northeast. The
undercutting nature of the front will also limit tornado potential
after passage. The more favorable kinematic/thermodynamic
environment will probably become centered across the Sabine Valley
in the next couple hours. This corridor will be monitored for a
possible tornado watch.
..Grams/Smith.. 11/18/2024
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...
LAT...LON 29619439 30039508 30969517 32139442 33149415 33439380
33259302 32629270 31939266 30609282 29809328 29619439
