MD 0340 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH LIKELY FOR SOUTHERN INDIANA…NORTHERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHWEST OHIO
Mesoscale Discussion 0340
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0455 AM CDT Tue Apr 02 2024
Areas affected…southern Indiana…northern Kentucky and southwest
Ohio
Concerning…Severe potential…Watch likely
Valid 020955Z – 021130Z
Probability of Watch Issuance…80 percent
SUMMARY…Severe thunderstorm potential is expected through late
morning across parts of northern Kentucky, southern Indiana and
southwest Ohio. Damaging gusts and a tornado or two will be possible
with this activity and a watch will likely be needed in the next
hour.
DISCUSSION…Upstream convection across southern IL/western KY into
southwest IN will continue to spread generally east this morning.
While instability remains modest across the region, strong vertical
shear is present and favorable for continued organized convection.
An increase in lightning trends across southern IL and the
background CAPE/shear environment suggest this activity will
continue within the vicinity of an effective outflow/stationary
front draped across southern IL/IN/southwest OH. Damaging gusts will
be possible with generally linear/bowing storm mode. However,
enlarged, curved low-level hodographs and 0-1 km SRH greater than
200 m2/s2 suggest some tornado risk also will accompany this
activity. A tornado watch downstream from WW 72 will likely be
needed in the next hour. It should be noted that additional severe
potential will overspread this same area again later this afternoon.
..Leitman/Smith.. 04/02/2024
…Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product…
ATTN…WFO…JKL…ILN…LMK…IND…PAH…
LAT…LON 38348725 38448684 38658611 39188463 39148416 38848386
38378367 38128378 37938425 37778548 37748687 37798731
38348725
