MD 0374 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF FAR EASTERN OREGON INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL IDAHO
Mesoscale Discussion 0374
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0431 PM CDT Wed Apr 03 2024
Areas affected…portions of far eastern Oregon into western and
central Idaho
Concerning…Severe potential…Watch unlikely
Valid 032131Z – 032300Z
Probability of Watch Issuance…5 percent
SUMMARY…Isolated strong wind gusts and instances of hail may
accompany the stronger storms this afternoon into early evening. The
severe threat is expected to be sparse and localized.
DISCUSSION…Multiple pulse cellular storms and multicells have
recently developed to the east of a cloud deck in the past couple of
hours over far eastern OR into southwestern ID. Here, diurnal
heating has encouraged surface temperatures to warm into the mid 60s
F amid mid 30s-40s F dewpoints, that in tandem with steep lapse
rates, has boosted SBCAPE to 500-1000 J/kg. RAP forecast soundings
and regional VADs depict curved, elongated hodographs, indicating
the presence of strong deep-layer shear, with 21Z mesoanalysis
depicting over 40 kts of effective bulk shear. Forecast soundings
show thin CAPE profiles atop a dry, well-mixed boundary layer. As
such, brief and localized instances of strong wind gusts and perhaps
some hail may occur with the stronger multicells or any transient
supercells that can develop. Nonetheless, the severe threat is
expected to remain isolated.
..Squitieri/Guyer.. 04/03/2024
…Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product…
ATTN…WFO…PIH…MSO…BOI…
LAT…LON 42631780 43031797 43501784 44021731 44651652 45021469
44831408 44551392 44271389 43741444 43491492 43161597
42811705 42631780
