MD 0471 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…TORNADO WATCH LIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN IN INTO CENTRAL OH
Mesoscale Discussion 0471
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1050 AM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024
Areas affected…portions of eastern IN into central OH
Concerning…Severe potential…Tornado Watch likely
Valid 171550Z – 171715Z
Probability of Watch Issuance…95 percent
SUMMARY…Severe potential will increase over the next 1-2 hours
across parts of eastern Indiana into western Ohio. All severe
hazards will be possible and a tornado watch will likely be needed
in the next hour.
DISCUSSION…Heating into the upper 60s to low 70s and dewpoints in
the low 60s is resulting in modest instability (MLCAPE up to 1000
J/kg). Effective shear magnitudes greater than 40 kt will support
organized convection, with supercells and some small line segments
possible. Damaging gusts to 65 mph and large hail to 1.5 inches in
diameter will be possible with this activity. Additionally, some
backing of low-level flow is possible, especially into parts of Ohio
this afternoon. Forecast and regional VWP data indicates enlarged
low-level hodographs. Steepening low-level lapse rates and
increasing 0-3 km MLCAPE with time amid favorable low-level shear
will support tornado potential in addition to the wind/hail risk. A
tornado watch will likely be needed within the next hour.
..Leitman/Mosier.. 04/17/2024
…Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product…
ATTN…WFO…PBZ…RLX…CLE…ILN…DTX…IWX…IND…
LAT…LON 41748587 41768290 41508183 40408183 39358238 39058317
39298474 39768561 40508601 41078602 41748587
