MD 0059 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF NORTHERN LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN ARKANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0059
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0317 PM CST Thu Jan 30 2025
Areas affected...parts of northern Louisiana and southern Arkansas
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 302117Z - 302345Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...A gradual increase in thunderstorms is expected through
this evening. Isolated severe storms capable of gusty winds or a
brief tornado cannot be ruled out.
DISCUSSION...A cold front continues to push across eastern TX, and
now into southwest AR and northwest LA. Ahead of this front,
persistent southerly winds have allowed for marginal destabilization
via advection with MUCAPE over 500 J/kg as far north as southeast
AR. Heating remains limited due to extensive pre-frontal clouds, and
scattered showers over the warm sector.
Although low to midlevel lapse rates are not particularly steep,
lightning activity has increased over the last hour, suggesting the
deepening moist boundary layer has breached the stable/capping
layer. As such, increasing storm coverage is anticipated along and
ahead of the cold front through this evening.
Shear profiles favor supercells and tornado potential, with
effective SRH now over 300 m2/s2, and, deep-layer shear vectors
oriented with substantial component across the cold front. With
time, a few of the storms could attain supercell characteristics,
with a conditional risk of a brief tornado and/or damaging gusts.
Trends will continue to be monitored over the next several hours.
..Jewell/Hart.. 01/30/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...
LAT...LON 34719118 34539097 34109085 33569100 32609153 32019221
31729311 31979324 32259324 33309278 34289244 34759176
34719118
