MD 0613 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH LIKELY FOR PARTS OF THE TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS AND PERMIAN BASIN
Mesoscale Discussion 0613
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0118 PM CDT Fri May 03 2024
Areas affected…parts of the Texas South Plains and Permian Basin
Concerning…Severe potential…Watch likely
Valid 031818Z – 032015Z
Probability of Watch Issuance…80 percent
SUMMARY…Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorm development,
including a couple of evolving supercells, appears increasingly
probable through 2-4 PM CDT. Strongest storms may eventually become
capable of producing large hail in excess of 3 inches in diameter,
and perhaps potential for a tornado.
DISCUSSION…Seasonably high boundary-layer moisture content beneath
steep lapse rates associated with warm elevated mixed-layer air is
allowing for the development of strong to extreme potential
instability with full insolation. During the next few hours this
will become focused along a zone of strengthening differential
surface heating and mixing, where an initial cold frontal surge into
the Texas South Plains has stalled and is weakening, and along a
sharpening dryline south of this boundary into the Davis Mountains
vicinity.
Mid/upper support for convective development is unclear, but west to
southwesterly flow aloft appears to be trending at least broadly
difluent, as initially weak low-level warm advection becomes a bit
more enhanced along the boundaries. The Rapid Refresh and
High-Resolution Rapid Refresh, among other output, suggest that the
initiation of isolated to widely scattered storms may commence as
early as 19-21Z, as convective temperatures are approached.
Lower through mid-level wind fields are at least initially rather
weak, but veering with height beneath 20-40 kt flow in the 500-300
mb layer seems likely to be supportive of the evolution of intense
supercell structures given the instability. Tornadic potential
appears a bit more unclear, but in the presence of light to modest
southwesterly deep layer mean flow, rightward propagating storms
along the segment of strengthening differential heating roughly
near/north of Big Spring into areas west of Abilene may pose the
most appreciable risk.
..Kerr/Smith.. 05/03/2024
…Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product…
ATTN…WFO…EWX…SJT…LUB…MAF…
LAT…LON 31909934 31220098 30610136 29930172 29780198 29640274
30990296 31900244 33200179 32849974 31909934
