SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1215 AM CDT Sat Nov 01 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF COASTAL SOUTH TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Strong to isolated severe storms capable of large hail will be possible late this afternoon/evening across portions of Coastal South Texas. ...South Texas... Strong upper low is currently digging south across the upper MS Valley. Along the back side of this feature, a midlevel jet will translate across the southern High Plains toward deep South TX where 500mb speeds will be in excess of 50kt. Surface pressures will rise across the southern Plains which will encourage the leading edge of this air mass to advance into central TX by late afternoon. Even so, this front is not expected to be the primary focus for robust convection. Latest guidance suggests a coastal boundary will establish itself early in the period and this feature will prove instrumental in potential strong-severe development. However, the coastal boundary should struggle to advance inland and the more appreciable instability will remain just offshore. Additionally, surface dew points are not that high across the western Gulf Basin where mid-upper 50s dew points are noted early this morning. Forecast soundings suggest lower 60s dew points should return to coastal South TX, and as midlevels cool by early evening, buoyancy is expected to become more supportive of deep convection. Wind profiles favor supercells and hail should be the primary concern. Will maintain MRGL Risk across this region as the majority of convection should be near the coast, or offshore. ..Darrow/Squitieri.. 11/01/2025
