Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0319 AM CST Tue Nov 11 2025 Valid 141200Z - 191200Z ...DISCUSSION... Bulk of guidance has largely trended towards the more consistent EC-AIFS with a cutoff closed low near southern CA on D5/Saturday. The EC-AIFS has been trending slower and more dampened with the downstream evolution across the southern Rockies into the central Great Plains into early next week. Most other deterministic guidance remains faster and farther south with the evolution of this wave and progress it into the South-Central States. A maritime tropical airmass should reach the TX Gulf Coast by late weekend. This should yield a resumption of severe potential into the South-Central States after being negligible in preceding days. Still, the quartet of latest GEFS-SPC/NSSL and yesterday's ECENS-AI NCAR probabilistic guidance are each holding at less than 15 percent. If the rest of guidance further follows recent EC-AIFS trends, severe probabilities may remain marginal and/or mesoscale-focused on D6-7/Sunday-Monday. Given signals for another large-scale trough into the Southwest towards D8/Tuesday and lack of frontal intrusion into the northwest Gulf with the lead wave, another round of severe potential may develop around mid-week next week.
