Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0349 AM CST Thu Nov 13 2025 Valid 161200Z - 211200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...South-Central States on D5-8/Monday-Thursday... Bulk of guidance continues to follow the lead of the EC-AIFS with the handling of a shortwave trough initially over the Southwest at 12Z Sunday. This compact wave should dampen as it crosses the southern Rockies to the central Great Plains into Monday. The peripheral southern influence of the wave may overspread the northern periphery of a confined western Gulf moisture plume. While 5 percent severe probabilities are evident, this setup will likely depend greatly on more precise timing of the trough ejection and attendant surface cyclone placement for a 15 percent highlight. The dampening of this wave will largely be in response to an upper ridge building from the Gulf into the Midwest downstream of an expansive trough becoming anchored over the Southwest. This may yield expansion of the persistent western Gulf moisture plume in the South-Central States mid-week. Most guidance indicates an intense mid-level jet may develop along the backside of this trough and eventually curl through the base with the trough accelerating eastward. Predictable timing of such a transition appears low given the large spread across guidance, but the EC-AIFS and AIGFS are consistent together in the 00Z run. This could yield an increasing severe threat starting around Wednesday, which is supported by NSSL GEFS ML version 1 probabilities peaking in this time frame.
