SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CST Sun Nov 16 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are possible across parts of the Mississippi and Ohio Valleys during the day on Tuesday, and also possible across parts of the southern Plains, mainly during the evening and overnight. A few strong storms are possible, but severe potential appears relatively low at this time. ...Synopsis... A mid/upper-level low and attendant deep trough are forecast to move slowly eastward across the Southwest on Tuesday. Farther east, a low-amplitude midlevel shortwave trough will move quickly east-southeastward from the Midwest toward the Mid Atlantic. A surface low initially over the east-central Plains is forecast to move eastward and weaken, as a trailing cold front stalls over parts of the Ozarks and southern Plains, before returning northward as a warm front late in the period. ...Southern Plains into parts of the OH/TN Valleys... Elevated convection will likely be ongoing Tuesday morning across parts of the mid MS and OH Valleys, which will tend to spread eastward toward the TN Valley and parts of the Appalachians. Uncertainties regarding the magnitude of elevated buoyancy will continue into early D3/Tuesday from D2/Monday, but a few strong storms capable of small to near-severe hail cannot be ruled out before the low-level warm-advection regime begins to weaken and convection moves into a more stable environment. Later in the day into Tuesday night, seasonably rich boundary-layer moisture will stream northward into a larger portion of OK and west TX, as the initial weak surface boundary effectively becomes a warm front. Moderate buoyancy and favorable deep-layer shear will be conditionally supportive of organized convection, though most guidance currently suggests that stronger large-scale ascent associated with the approaching trough across the Southwest will remain west of the expanding buoyancy reservoir through the end of the period. Very isolated storm development cannot be ruled out near the front during the afternoon and evening, though any such development may struggle to intensify in the absence of stronger forcing. A somewhat greater chance for robust (though likely somewhat elevated) storm development may evolve late in the period across parts of west TX into southwest OK, in response to a modestly strengthening low-level jet. The 16/00Z GFS/RRFS are currently the most aggressive regarding storm development prior to 12Z Wednesday morning, but if other guidance trends in that direction, then severe probabilities may eventually be needed. ..Dean.. 11/16/2025
