SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0148 PM CST Sun Nov 16 2025 Valid 162000Z - 171200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible across the Four Corners states today and parts of California mainly late tonight. Severe thunderstorms are not expected. ...20z Update... No changes are needed to the D1 Convective Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 11/16/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1017 AM CST Sun Nov 16 2025/ ...Synopsis... A broad upper trough will eject into the Atlantic as a second upper trough, with multiple embedded impulses, overspreads the Interior West today. The first of the two mid-level impulses will approach the Rockies while the second impulse impinges on the CA coastline, especially late in the period. Cooler temperatures aloft, associated with each impulse, will overspread both the central/southern Rockies and the CA coast, resulting in scant buoyancy. While instability will be meager in both regions, strong deep-layer ascent with the aforementioned buoyancy may support isolated to potentially scattered thunderstorm development today into tonight.
