Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CST Sun Nov 16 2025 Valid 191200Z - 241200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...D4/Wednesday - D5/Thursday... An increase in severe potential remains evident across the south-central CONUS from D4/Wednesday into D5/Thursday, but uncertainty remains regarding many details and the overall magnitude of the threat. Guidance is in somewhat better agreement regarding the timing of the closed mid/upper-level low and attendant trough that will move from the Southwest toward the south-central Plains from late Wednesday into Thursday. Forcing may remain somewhat nebulous during the day on Wednesday, but storms that may develop late Tuesday night could continue into Wednesday morning, while isolated diurnal development will be possible across the broader warm sector. Deep-layer shear will be favorable for organized storms, but low-level flow is generally forecast to be rather weak until late Wednesday night. As the approaching trough impinges upon rich boundary-layer moisture and a reservoir of moderate buoyancy, storm development will become increasingly widespread Wednesday night into Thursday, along/ahead of a north/south-oriented cold front that will move east across the southern/central Plains. Deep-layer shear will remain favorable for storm organization, while low-level flow/shear should increase as a surface low deepens and moves northeastward across the central Plains. Some severe threat may expand from the southern Plains into parts of the lower MO and mid MS Valleys with time on Thursday, though buoyancy will become increasingly scant with northward extent. Given the late arrival of stronger large-scale ascent and low-level mass response on Wednesday night, and the anticipated widespread storm coverage on Thursday, the magnitude of available buoyancy and the resulting severe threat remain uncertain. These uncertainties appear to be reflected in the relatively broad and modest probabilities from available calibrated guidance. However, given the likelihood of a strong ejecting trough impinging upon anomalous low-level moisture, severe probabilities will likely be needed in subsequent outlooks. ...D6/Friday - D8/Sunday... Predictability regarding the synoptic pattern becomes rather low by late week into next weekend. Some severe threat could spread into parts of the Southeast and Ohio Valley on Friday, though buoyancy will become increasingly limited. Some guidance (such as the 16/00Z ECMWF) depicts another deep trough moving across the southern Plains next weekend, though spread regarding this potential system is quite large within other extended-range guidance.
