SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0138 AM CST Mon Nov 17 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are possible across parts of the Southwest into the southern Plains vicinity Wednesday into early Thursday. ...Southern Plains... An upper trough is expected to be oriented from the western Great Basin toward southern CA/northern Baja Wednesday morning, and track slowly eastward toward the Four Corners/southern Rockies by Thursday morning. Forecast guidance has trended slowly with the eastward ejection of the upper trough. As a result, stronger southwesterly flow, and a strengthening low-level jet are not expected to develop over portions of the southern Rockies into OK/TX until after 00-06z. This will also delay any stronger forcing for ascent until late in the forecast period. At the surface, southerly low-level flow will transport Gulf moisture northward across TX/OK and the south-central states. Forecast soundings suggest capping in the 850-700 mb layer will persist for much of the diurnal period. Given nebulous forcing, outside of persistent, modest warm advection, it is unclear if/how much convection may develop across the warm sector during the day. The 00z RRFS suggests elevated convection may develop near the moisture gradient/surface trough across west-central TX and toward the Red River in southwest OK by late afternoon. While vertical shear would support at least loosely organized convection, low to midlevel flow will be somewhat weak, and elevated instability modest (generally less than 1000 J/kg). Later in the period (after 06z), large-scale ascent will increase and a modest southerly low-level jet should intensify as the upper trough approaches NM. Additional convection may develop late Wednesday night into early Thursday morning amid a stronger mass response. Some risk for marginal hail could accompany stronger convection. However, confidence is low regarding coverage, intensity and timing of any more organized/stronger storm development, especially given the trend toward a more slowly/later ejecting trough. Will hold off introducing severe probabilities at this time, but probs could become necessary with later updates. ..Leitman.. 11/17/2025
