SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 AM CST Tue Nov 18 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms are possible across the southern Plains on Thursday. Severe thunderstorms potential is uncertain, but appears limited at this time. Isolated thunderstorms may extend into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys as well, though this activity is not expected to be severe. ...Southern Plains... An upper trough over AZ and northwest Mexico will pivot east/northeast on Thursday, emerging into the southern Plains. Most guidance shows some deamplification of this feature with time/eastward extent. Regardless, increasing ascent and moderate deep-layer southwesterly flow is expected to overspread TX/OK and the Ozark Plateau. Widespread showers/thunderstorms are expected to be ongoing across portions of the southern Plains Thursday morning. This will likely limit destabilization and result in weak low-level lapse rates across much of the warm sector. Some strong storms could be possible as modest surface cyclogenesis occurs and a Pacific front moves east across western/central OK and central into eastern TX by Friday morning. However, with deep-layer flow parallel to the surface boundary, training/heavy precipitation may be more likely than organized severe storms. Given uncertainty in degree of destabilization due to widespread convective contamination of the warm sector, will hold off delineating any low-end severe probabilities as confidence is low regarding where any relatively greater potential may develop. ..Leitman.. 11/18/2025
