Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0324 AM CST Tue Nov 18 2025 Valid 211200Z - 261200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Days 4-5/Fri-Sat - Southeast TX to the Carolinas... A shortwave upper trough over the southern Plains will migrate east across the Mid-South on Friday, and exiting the southern Mid-Atlantic coast by Saturday evening. Gulf moisture will spread across much of the region ahead of a weak surface low and slowly moving cold front. Thunderstorms, perhaps some strong, could develop near the front from southeast TX into the Mid-South and OH/TN Valley vicinity on Friday into early Saturday. However, instability is expected to remain weak as boundary layer moisture decreases with northeast extent. Furthermore, low-level flow will remain veering and boundary-parallel deep-layer flow will favor more of a messy/training storm mode. While some low-end severe probabilities could become necessary in later outlook, potential appears too low for 15 percent probabilities on Friday. Thunderstorms will continue to develop eastward into the Carolinas on Saturday as the cold front continues to sag southeast. Weak instability will likely preclude severe potential into Saturday. ...Days 6-8/Sun-Tue - Southern Plains... Spread among forecast guidance increases considerably by Days 6-7/Sun-Mon and confidence/predictability is low. However, in general another upper trough is expected to deepen across the Southwestern U.S. early next week, perhaps ejecting into the Plains sometime around the end of the forecast period. Gulf return flow will occur across TX ahead of this next trough in a progressive upper pattern. Increasing moisture and shear as the trough ejects could support severe potential across the southern Plains early next week, but details remain uncertain.
