SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0141 PM CST Sun Nov 02 2025 Valid 022000Z - 031200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms appear unlikely through tonight. No changes were made to the previous forecast. ..Hart.. 11/02/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1002 AM CST Sun Nov 02 2025/ ...Synopsis and Discussion... A mid/upper-level low centered over the TN Valley this morning will continue moving east-southeastward toward the coastal Southeast through tonight. Cool mid-level temperatures (-20 C or colder at 500 mb) will accompany this upper low, with filtered boundary-layer heating preceding it across the Cumberland Plateau toward the southern Appalachians. Steepening low/mid-level lapse rates should allow surface-based parcels to reach their convective temperatures this afternoon. This may support isolated thunderstorm development across parts of northeast AL/northern GA and eastern portions of KY/TN. Small hail could occur with these low-topped thunderstorms given the cold temperature profiles aloft. Late tonight, a weak surface wave is forecast to develop off the coast of the Carolinas. A warmer/more moist airmass should advance toward the coast with this low. It still appears likely that the surface-based warm sector will remain focused offshore. But, a few stronger thunderstorms could approach the immediate NC Coast/Outer Banks late tonight/early Monday morning. Isolated thunderstorms may also occur through the period across portions of south FL and the Keys along/near a remnant front.
