SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1145 PM CST Sat Nov 29 2025 Valid 301200Z - 011200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few thunderstorms are possible along the Gulf Coast and southern Florida. Severe thunderstorms are not expected. ...Synopsis... Severe storm potential is low over the CONUS today. A broad upper trough over the Midwest will shift eastward with shortwave ridging in its wake. A second shortwave trough will intensify over the southern Rockies as flow aloft becomes more zonal over the eastern half of the US. At the surface, low pressure over the Great Lakes will quickly lift northward into Canada as a strong cold front sweeps south toward the US Gulf/Atlantic Coasts. High pressure and an arctic air mass behind the front will keep much of the US hostile to thunderstorm development. The only exception will be where modest instability can develop near the southeastern FL Peninsula, eastern Atlantic waters and the immediate Gulf Coast ahead of the cold front. Isolated thunderstorms that develop will be aided by modest mid-level southwesterly flow atop the surface frontal zone. These storms should move quickly offshore before midday as the front continues surging south. Residual buoyancy inland will become increasingly removed with time as high pressure and resulting offshore flow intensifies. Given the very weak instability and short residence time of onshore convection, severe weather is not expected. ..Lyons/Weinman.. 11/30/2025
