SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0642 PM CST Mon Nov 03 2025 Valid 040100Z - 041200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe storms are not expected tonight. ...Synopsis... A pronounced mid-level trough and accompanying 110+ kt 500 mb jet max will continue to rapidly progress over the Northeast through tonight. Cooler temperatures above the boundary layer are contributing to near 8 C/km low- to mid-level lapse rates, resulting in marginal (but adequate) buoyancy to support low-topped thunderstorm development (per the 00Z BUF observed sounding). This sounding also shows 50+ kt west-northwesterly flow just above the boundary layer, and strengthening further with height, resulting in elongated hodographs. It is not out of the question that some of the deeper convective cells may produce a few strong wind gusts over the next couple of hours, before the boundary layer stabilizes. ..Squitieri.. 11/04/2025
