SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1131 PM CST Wed Nov 05 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast. ...Discussion... Seasonally active large-scale pattern will continue across the CONUS during the day1 period. Several notable short-wave troughs will advance inland along the Pacific Northwest Coast then track along/south of the international border toward the Great Lakes/OH Valley region. While each of these features will have areas of focused ascent, continental air mass is dominant across the country and moisture/instability will prove limited across most regions. One area where buoyancy may prove adequate for a few thunderstorms is across the Pacific Northwest. Strong midlevel jet will approach the WA/OR Coast during the latter half of the period and a cold front will surge inland after 07/00z. Subsequent cooling/steepening lapse rates favor weak surface-based instability and favorable onshore flow is expected to aid updraft strength such that a few flashes of lighting may occur within deeper cells. Downstream across the Midwest, quick-moving short-wave trough will progress across the northern/central Plains as a 500mb speed max translates across CO/KS into northern MO by 07/06z. Weak buoyancy is forecast to develop as low-level warm advection strengthens ahead of the cold front. Forecast soundings suggest parcels lifted near 850mb may yield a few hundred J/kg MUCAPE and scattered elevated convection is expected primarily during the overnight hours. Low-latitude disturbance is forecast to eject across the southern Gulf Basin toward south FL late in the period. This feature should encourage a weak surface trough to focus near the south FL Atlantic Coast. Scattered convection is expected to develop near/east of this boundary during the overnight hours. ..Darrow/Wendt.. 11/06/2025
