SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0219 AM CST Fri Nov 07 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE SOUTH ATLANTIC COASTAL PLAIN... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms will be possible on Sunday midday into early evening along the South Atlantic Coastal Plain from north Florida to far southeast Virginia. ...North FL to southeast VA... Major amplification of the eastern CONUS upper trough that commences on D2/Saturday will persist through Sunday. Attendant surface cyclone should track from the Lower Great Lakes/Upper OH Valley towards coastal southern New England through Sunday night. Extending south from this low, a cold front will push east across the Southeast and largely offshore by late evening, north of the FL Peninsula. While the bulk of deep-layer flow amplification will be behind the front, strong deep-layer shear will be present along/ahead of it with at least weak surface-based buoyancy. Guidance continues to depict run-to-run inconsistency as some models trend upward with the degree of convective coverage, while others indicate a fairly dry frontal passage in this region amid low RH/weak lapse rates in the mid-levels. The 00Z GEFS and parent GFS are seemingly the most insistent on greater than isolated convective coverage from GA northward, supportive of a level 2-SLGT risk delineation. But with other guidance trending in the opposite direction, will defer to later outlooks for a potential upgrade. ..Grams.. 11/07/2025
