SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1200 AM CST Sat Nov 08 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM FAR EASTERN GEORGIA INTO THE CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms capable of marginally severe hail and isolated severe wind gusts will be possible this afternoon and evening across parts of far eastern Georgia and the Carolinas. ...Far Eastern Georgia/Carolinas... At mid-levels, a trough will move quickly eastward into the Ozarks today, as southwesterly cyclonic flow remains over much of the eastern U.S. At the surface, a warm front will move into southern North Carolina, as a moist airmass advects northward to the south of the front. Surface dewpoints across this airmass will be in the 60s F, and weak instability is expected to develop during the afternoon. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible as the mid-level system approaches. In the late afternoon, RAP forecast soundings near Charleston, South Carolina have MUCAPE increasing to around 1200 J/kg, with 0-6 km shear near 50 knots. In addition, low-level lapse rates are forecast to be steep in the lowest 1 km. This environment could support marginally severe wind gusts and hail. Later this evening, a band of storms is forecast to develop across the Carolinas along the northwestern edge of the moist airmass. Along this southwest-to-northeast corridor, a marginal severe threat may be maintained through the evening as a low-level jet becomes focused. However, the primary threat could gradually transition to hail, as a sharp low-level temperature inversion develops. ..Broyles/Supinie.. 11/08/2025
