SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1232 AM CST Sat Nov 08 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTH ATLANTIC COASTAL PLAIN... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms will be possible on Sunday afternoon into the evening along the South Atlantic Coastal Plain from central Florida to southeast Virginia. Damaging winds and hail are the expected hazards. ...Synopsis... A highly amplified upper pattern is anticipated with an expansive trough east of the Rockies and a ridge over the West. Associated with one of the several shortwave impulses embedded within the broad trough, primary surface cyclone should track from the Upper OH Valley towards the Northeast/southern New England coast. A cold front will tighten as it moves east of the Appalachians and off the Eastern Seaboard by 12Z Monday. ...Central FL to Southeast VA... As has been the case for the past few days, some models have struggled with run-to-run consistency in the degree of convective coverage ahead of the aforementioned cold front. Latest trends have settled back into indicating a drier/more mixed boundary layer ahead of the front. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms may be confined from central FL to southeast GA where MLCAPE of 500-1500 J/kg should be common by Sunday afternoon. While low-level shear will be weak, strengthening mid-level west-southwesterlies should support a threat for isolated severe wind/hail. Farther north, decreasing surface-based instability should be compensated by stronger deep-layer shear. This will support a more conditional risk for severe, with mainly marginal intensities. Storm coverage may be quite limited through sunset before isolated convection develops during the evening as increasing mid-level height falls occur just prior to the front shifting offshore. ..Grams.. 11/08/2025
