SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1145 PM CST Sat Nov 08 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF FLORIDA...SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND THE EASTERN CAROLINAS.... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with marginally severe wind gusts and hail will be possible today from parts of Florida northeastward into the eastern Carolinas. ...Florida/Southern Georgia/Eastern Carolinas... A large-scale mid-level trough will move eastward into the lower to mid Mississippi Valley today, as an associated cold front advances eastward into the southern and central Appalachians. Ahead of the front, a moist airmass will be in place from Florida northeastward into the eastern Carolinas, where surface dewpoints will be in the 60s F. As surface temperatures warm within this airmass during the day, isolated thunderstorms will be possible near any thermal axis or zone of low-level convergence that develops. In spite of only weak instability, mid-level flow will increase across the southern Atlantic Seaboard due to the approaching trough. This is evident on RAP forecast soundings in the afternoon which increase 0-6 km shear into the 40 to 50 knot range. In addition, forecast soundings across the southern Atlantic Seaboard have MLCAPE peaking near 1000 J/kg with 0-3 km lapse rates becoming steep by late afternoon. This should support a marginal wind-damage threat with the stronger multicells. A potential for hail is also expected to develop. The marginal severe threat may continue into the early evening, mainly across north-central Florida where instability is forecast to be the strongest. ..Broyles/Supinie.. 11/09/2025
