SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1152 AM CDT Sat Oct 11 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe-storm risk appears negligible on Sunday into Sunday night. ...East... A surface cyclone near the coastal Carolinas at 12Z Sunday should gradually fill as it drifts north, offshore of the Lower Mid-Atlantic. Convection should primarily segregate into two corridors of weak elevated activity. One near the quasi-stationary mid-level low centered in eastern SC and the other in the offshore low-level warm conveyor that will sustain weakening convection approaching the Mid-Atlantic to southern New England coast. Largely poor lapse rates will limit instability/MUCAPE and thunder coverage. ...Northern Plains and Upper Midwest... Isolated elevated thunderstorms are possible Sunday morning ahead of the shortwave trough impinging on the northwest ND/far northeast MT vicinity. Isolated elevated storms are also possible across parts of the Upper Midwest within the downstream low-level warm conveyor on Sunday. This will be characterized by weak MUCAPE/mid-level lapse rates with convection subsiding by Sunday night. ...Southwest... Scattered afternoon thunderstorms are most probable across southern AZ into southwest NM. Weak lapse rates above a relatively shallow mixed boundary layer will limit convective vigor. Isolated elevated thunderstorms are also possible Sunday night into early morning Monday both northward to the Four Corners and eastward in the Southern Plains. ...Pacific Northwest... A shortwave trough digging south along the Pacific Northwest coast will aid in sufficient forcing for ascent and steepening of mid-level lapse rates for an isolated thunderstorm risk on Sunday afternoon through Sunday night. ..Grams.. 10/11/2025
