SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0219 PM CDT Sat Oct 11 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not yet forecast on Monday. ...Southwest... A mid/upper low will move south along the OR to the northern CA coast through the period. A broadening swath of 50+ kt 500-mb southwesterlies to westerlies will overspread much of southern CA to the eastern Great Basin and CO Plateau. Primary area of concern for a potential level 1-MRGL risk in later outlooks is from the Four Corners vicinity southward across eastern AZ to southern NM, where the strengthening deep-layer flow regime would support lower-end mid-level updraft rotation. But mid-level lapse rates appear likely to remain weak, limiting MLCAPE. Depending on mesoscale details related to the degree of diabatic surface heating, in the wake of lingering overnight/morning clouds/rain, a corridor or two of low-end severe highlights may become warranted. ...CA... Guidance consensus indicate an intense mid-level jetlet should impinge on the southern CA coast Monday night, to the south of the aforementioned northern CA low. This would foster a conditionally favorable deep-layer wind profile for updraft rotation. However, mid-level temperatures should remain warm enough to maintain shallow convection where hodographs would be enlarged within the low-level warm conveyor. Isolated, general thunderstorms should be confined farther north where mid-level lapse rates are much steeper, and meager buoyancy can still be maintained. ..Grams.. 10/11/2025
