SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1223 PM CDT Sun Oct 12 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST STATES... ...SUMMARY... Isolated, marginally severe hail and wind will be possible from the Four Corners and eastern Arizona to the Texas Trans-Pecos on Monday afternoon into mid-evening. Locally damaging winds are possible on Monday night along the south-central portion of coastal California. ...Southwest... A mid/upper low will drop south along the OR coast towards the Bay Area through the period. A broadening swath of 50+ kt 500-mb southwesterlies will envelop much of southern CA to the eastern Great Basin and CO Plateau by late afternoon. This strengthening deep-layer flow regime will conditionally support lower-end mid-level updraft rotation. Despite a seasonably moist air mass across the Southwest, weak mid-level lapse rates will limit MLCAPE. Morning clouds/rain will also curtail diabatic surface heating. But scattered to widespread thunderstorms should develop during the afternoon from eastern AZ to the Four Corners vicinity. Isolated and marginal severe hail/wind appear possible. Convection farther southeast into the TX Trans-Pecos should increase into early evening, where a strong to marginal severe storm is possible. ...South-central coastal CA... An intense mid-level jetlet will impinge on the southern CA coast Monday night, to the south of the aforementioned northern CA low. Some morning CAM guidance indicates potential for a low-topped convective band in the left-exit region of this jetlet. While mid-level lapse rates may remain insufficient for charge separation, strong lower-level winds coinciding with the band could be convectively mixed to the surface and foster locally damaging winds. ..Grams.. 10/12/2025
