SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 PM CDT Sun Oct 12 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN NM AND SOUTHERN CA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated, marginal severe thunderstorms are possible across a portion of southern California on Tuesday morning to midday, and New Mexico from mid-afternoon to mid-evening. ...Southern CA... A low-topped convective band may be ongoing at 12Z Tuesday in the central-south CA coastal area near/northwest of the Los Angeles Basin. Most guidance suggests a belt of strong 850-700 mb winds will persist through at least midday beneath an intense mid-level jetlet that shifts from southern CA into the southern Great Basin. Instability will be meager, to the south of the mid-level cold core across central CA, amid weak mid-level lapse rates and rather limited insolation. But with some signal for convection accompanying the strong wind fields, a low-probability damaging wind and brief waterspout to tornado threat appears warranted. ...NM... Similar to prior days, weak mid-level lapse rates will remain a limiting factor to updraft vigor. Nevertheless, a belt of moderately enhanced mid-level south-southwesterlies will persist between the CA cyclone and east TX anticyclone. Guidance differs on the degree of boundary-layer heating Tuesday across NM, but generally agree that modest buoyancy should develop over south-central/southwest NM. Scattered thunderstorms should peak during the latter half of the afternoon from the Sangre de Cristo Mountains to the higher terrain of northern Chihuahua. This southern activity may spread north-northeast into south-central NM during the evening. An isolated and marginal severe hail/wind threat remains possible. ..Grams.. 10/12/2025
