SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0246 PM CDT Sun Oct 12 2025 Valid 122000Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur today across parts of southern/central Arizona, with marginally severe hail and gusty winds possible. ...20z Update... The previous forecast remains on track with no changes needed. Latest GOES visible imagery and surface observations show an outflow boundary - emanating from decaying convection over central AZ - drifting southward into south-central AZ where temperatures continue to warm into the 80s with MLCAPE increasing to around 1000 J/kg. Although forcing for ascent across the region remains fairly nebulous, additional thunderstorm development along this boundary remains plausible through the evening hours. Regional VWPs continue to sample 35-45 knot winds between 5-6 km AGL, which may support some degree of storm organization/longevity and a localized severe hail/wind threat. ..Moore.. 10/12/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1123 AM CDT Sun Oct 12 2025/ ...Southern/Central Arizona... The region will continue to be peripherally influenced by a lead trough shifting east-northeastward from the northern/central Rockies toward the northern Plains, and a moist environment with middle 60s to lower 70s F surface dewpoints. Scattered semi-repetitive showers and thunderstorms are ongoing across south-central Arizona at late morning/midday including near the Phoenix Metro vicinity. This may limit diurnal destabilization some especially with northward extent, but the precipitation could abate some as forcing for ascent modestly weakens this afternoon, before additional late-day redevelopment/re-intensification occurs within a moist and weakly capped/destabilizing air mass. Regardless, relatively strong mid/high-level winds will support some sustained multicells, with some hail/gusty winds possible with the strongest storms this afternoon and evening.
