SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1253 AM CDT Thu Oct 23 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN INTO CENTRAL TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe storms with damaging winds and hail are possible centered over western and central Texas, from mid-afternoon Friday into Friday night. ...Synopsis.. A broad, and somewhat disjointed positive-tilt upper trough with multiple embedded impulses is forecast to move from the Southwest and Southern Rockies into the Plains Friday and Friday night. As the trough advances eastward, enhanced southwesterly flow will overspread a moistening air mass across parts of western and central TX into southern OK. A lee trough and cold front trailing a weak surface low over the TX Panhandle will serve as a focus for scattered storm development Friday afternoon and Friday evening across much of the southern Pains. ...Trans Pecos into central TX... Ahead of the southern most mid-level impulse, ascent will increase through the day eroding weak inhibition over parts of southwestern and central TX. Southeasterly low-level flow will transport mid 60s to low 70s F surface dewpoints westward, supporting moderate destabilization over the Pecos Valley northward to the TX South Plains. Scattered thunderstorms are likely to develop along the lee trough and advancing cold front by mid afternoon, spreading east northeastward. Veering wind profiles with 40+ kt of deep-layer shear should support a mix of supercells and clusters/line segments capable of hail, damaging winds, and a tornado or two. Given the weak inhibition, persistent ascent, and increasing storm coverage, upscale growth into a large MCS is likely across the Edwards Plateau to central TX vicinity Friday night. This should support a continued isolated severe wind/hail threat into the early Saturday. ...TX Panhandle into southern OK and western North TX... Farther north, uncertainty is much higher regarding surface-based destabilization. Scattered to widespread elevated convection will be ongoing at 12Z Friday from the eastern TX Panhandle, Red River Valley into KS, with remnant cloud cover likely to impact diurnal heating. An east-west baroclinic boundary is likely to become established serving as the northern effective limit for the surface-based warm sector. As mid-level ascent increases, scattered to numerous storms are likely to develop through the afternoon and evening. Some of these storms may be elevated north of the boundary. While a messy storm mode with numerous interactions are likely, at-least isolated hail and damaging winds appear probable from the eastern TX Panhandle across southeastern OK and North TX Friday and Friday night. ..Lyons.. 10/23/2025
