SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1235 AM CDT Fri Oct 24 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across portions of Texas. A few tornadoes, damaging winds, and large hail may occur. ...Texas... Upper low near the Four Corners region has slowed considerably and will only advance into the southern High Plains by the end of the day1 period. Early this morning, a notable midlevel speed max is ejecting across the northern Gulf of CA. This feature will translate across northern Mexico into the extreme southern portions of the Big Bend region by 25/00z before the strongest flow advances into northeast TX by the end of the period. This low-latitude speed max will encourage a weak surface low to drop south across west TX, then southeast along the Rio Grande River as midlevel heights fall across TX. A southwest-northeast corridor of convection persists from west TX into the Red River region at 0530z, and this is reinforcing a surface boundary that should struggle to advance appreciably north through the period. Strongest LLJ will focus across the TX South Plains and this is expected to modulate multiple convective events, especially near the stalled boundary. Extensive clouds/precipitation will limit boundary layer heating, but modest buoyancy is expected across much of western into south central TX as midlevel flow increases during the day. While LLJ will prove instrumental in convective development both prior to sunrise and early in the period, large-scale forcing should encourage thunderstorm development by early afternoon along the eastern edge of stronger boundary layer heating across west TX. This activity should grow upscale and propagate east as a larger complex of storms. Strengthening wind profiles favor supercells, but storm mode will likely be complex with storm mergers and one or more MCSs likely. All hazards are possible with supercells, but wind will be more common with linear activity. Convection should easily advance beyond the I-35 corridor, possibly approaching the coastal Plain of TX by 25/12z. ..Darrow/Wendt.. 10/24/2025
