SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1257 AM CDT Fri Oct 24 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS INTO LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are possible on Saturday into Saturday night, from southeast Texas to southern Louisiana. ...Synopsis... A broad positive-tilt upper trough over the Rio Grande Valley will gradually strengthen while moving eastward over central TX Saturday through Saturday night. Ascent attendant to a strong embedded shortwave/jet will round the base of the trough and overspread robust moisture over the northwest Gulf Coast and lower MS Valley. While early morning thunderstorms are likely to complicate the forecast, a remnant outflow boundary may serve as a focus for renewed severe storm development across southeast TX and LA Saturday afternoon through Saturday night. ...TX/LA... Early in the day, an expansive MCS is likely to be ongoing across east/southeast TX. This activity is likely to continue moving southeastward toward the Gulf Coast, with an isolated wind and tornado threat. In the wake of the MCS, outflow will stall and gradually lift back northward, allowing for some air mass recovery east of the dryline across far south TX. Low 70s F surface dewpoints and strong heating should support moderate buoyancy by mid afternoon. The approach of the basal shortwave and mid-level jet will support additional storm development with veering wind profiles and 40+ kt of deep-layer shear favoring supercells and organized clusters. With most of the activity expected to occur along and north of the recovering outflow, these storms may be elevated above the surface. This would favor a risk mainly for large hail given cool mid-level temperatures. As forcing intensifies ahead of the deepening trough, upscale growth is again expected late Saturday evening and overnight. An MCS may develop and track eastward along the remnant outflow across southeast TX into southern LA. A threat for damaging gusts and a few tornadoes may continue overnight as surface moisture and low-level shear remain stout beneath a strengthening low-level jet across the Lower Sabine and MS Valley. While some uncertainty remains regarding destabilization, boundary layer separation is likely to be delayed with continued low-level warm advection off the Gulf overnight. ..Lyons.. 10/24/2025
