SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 PM CDT Sat Oct 25 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are expected over parts of the Southeast on Monday, with minimal severe storm risk. ...Discussion... A low-amplitude shortwave trough will continue eastward across the Southeast on Monday, with a weak surface low moving from the northeast Gulf across northern FL. Along and south of the boundary, a moist and marginally unstable air mass will remain with perhaps 1000-1500 J/kg MUCAPE during the day. Although strong high level winds will exist with this wave, winds below 700 mb are forecast to be weak. Elevated storms are likely north of boundary early, with scattered daytime storms across the FL Peninsula. Marginal deep-layer shear and lapse rates suggest minimal severe risk, but perhaps a few strong gusts may occur during the afternoon. Elsewhere, an upper trough amplification will occur late in the period across the High Plains, with an intense speed max and cooling aloft into the central Plains. Despite minimal low-level moisture, lift along a developing cold front and cold midlevel temperatures will favor a few thunderstorms late. Small hail cannot be ruled out due to such cold profiles aloft. ..Jewell.. 10/25/2025
