SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 PM CDT Sun Oct 26 2025 Valid 262000Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for a couple of tornadoes and occasional damaging gusts may persist this afternoon through tonight across parts of coastal Alabama and the Florida Panhandle. ...20z Update... No changes are needed to the current D1 Convective Outlook. With the warm front slightly offshore and stronger 850 mb flow displaced to the north, the most robust cells have remained over the Gulf this afternoon. It does still appear that later this evening that 850 flow may increase again across the coast, with more favorable dew points/moisture moving inland and potential for a few rotating cells to move inland. As such, have maintained the Slight Risk with this update. See previous discussion for more information. ..Thornton.. 10/26/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1110 AM CDT Sun Oct 26 2025/ ...Central Gulf Coast... Rotating cells along/near the coast of MS/AL have a history of producing at least a couple of tornadoes earlier this morning, with the latest VWP from KMOB still showing favorable low-level hodograph curvature and elongation. With time, the enhanced low-level flow associated with an upper trough moving eastward across the lower MS Valley should tend to become mostly displaced to the north of ongoing convection. Still, sufficient low-level and deep-layer shear are forecast to overlap with the narrow warm sector that should remain draped along/very near the immediate coast of southern AL and parts of the FL Panhandle this afternoon through tonight. Brief tornadoes will remain the primary threat with low-topped, rotating cells that can move onshore and remain surface based. Occasional damaging winds may also occur. Some guidance suggests that the severe threat may persist this evening/overnight as the modest low-level jet axis shifts eastward and greater surface dewpoints move inland. Have therefore extended the Slight Risk eastward to include more of southern AL and parts of the FL Panhandle to account for this possibility. The northward/inland extent of appreciable severe risk will remain constrained by a less unstable airmass where generally 50s surface dewpoints exist.
