SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255 AM CDT Mon Oct 27 2025 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible over the Ozarks to the southeast Texas coast Tuesday. Severe potential is low. ...Synopsis... A strong upper trough and jet streak will move out of the central Plains into the mid MS Valley Tuesday before the upper trough deepens into a closed low Tuesday night. As these upper-level features intensify, a surface low will develop over the Red River Valley and strengthen as it moves into the mid MS Valley early Wednesday. Attendant to the surface low, a powerful cold front will sweep eastward over much of the central and eastern US, reaching the Gulf Coast by 00z Wednesday. Southerly winds ahead of the cold front and surface low will briefly allow some moisture return from east TX to southern MO. As cool mid-level temperatures overspread the modestly moist air mass, weak buoyancy is expected to develop. A few thunderstorms are possible from southern MO, into AR and east TX ahead of the front. However, forecast boundary layer moisture profiles are expected to be shallow over much of the warm sector. This, along with poor mid-level lapse rates and drier air approaching from the west will likely curtail buoyancy (MUCAPE 500 J/kg or less) and storm intensity. A stronger storm or two is possible over coastal southeast TX where moisture will be somewhat deeper. An isolated strong gust or small hail will be possible with any more robust storms able to persist. However, poor lapse rates and the tendency for the cold front to undercut convection suggests this risk will be limited. Elsewhere, elevated instability may remain over the NC Outer Banks as a weakening upper wave moves across the area, with moist easterly winds wrapping moisture westward north of an offshore surface low. Most model guidance shows storms remaining just offshore. However, some inland lightning potential cannot be ruled out. ..Lyons.. 10/27/2025
